In a recent analysis, MSNBC's Steve Kornacki highlighted potential pitfalls for the Democratic Party following the selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as Vice President Kamala Harris's running mate. While the decision was intended to bolster the Democrats' chances in crucial battleground states, Kornacki's data suggests it may not yield the desired effect.
One of the primary concerns is Walz's performance in rural areas and small towns. Historically, these regions have been pivotal for Democratic victories, but the party's support has dwindled significantly since Donald Trump's rise in 2016.
GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance attacked his Democratic counterpart's military background today, accusing Tim Walz of "stolen valor".
Governor Wes Moore, a veteran himself, joins @mitchellreports to discuss why Vance and Walz alike deserve respect for their service. pic.twitter.com/HzZYdS9vnW
— MSNBC Reports (@MSNBC_reports) August 7, 2024
The expectation was that Walz, with his Midwestern background, would resonate with these voters. However, Kornacki pointed out that Walz failed to achieve this in his 2022 gubernatorial re-election, where he secured 52% of the vote—similar to Joe Biden's 2020 results in Minnesota.
Moreover, despite winning by a substantial margin in urban areas like the Twin Cities, Walz struggled in the predominantly rural counties.
🚨 Tim Walz On MSNBC Says That There Is No First Amendment Protection For Misinformation Or Hate Speach
Your Thoughts: Do our First Amendment rights cover speech the government doesn't like?
A clip has resurfaced from an interview on MSNBC.
Walz: "There’s no guarantee to… pic.twitter.com/VOSYFnOws5
— Cash Loren (@CashLorenShow) August 7, 2024
These areas, which were competitive before Trump, have since shifted heavily Republican. For instance, 49 out of Minnesota's 87 counties saw Republicans improve their margins by at least 20 points in recent elections.
The data indicates that Walz's electoral coalition mirrors the post-Obama Democratic base, which relies heavily on urban and college-educated voters while losing ground in blue-collar and less-educated regions. This trend raises doubts about Walz's ability to sway voters in similar areas across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—states crucial for a Democratic victory in 2024.
Critics argue that Harris's campaign may have overlooked these factors in selecting Walz. A running mate from one of the battleground states, like Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro, could have been a more strategic choice given Shapiro's broader appeal, including among some Republican voters.
Despite these concerns, the Democratic ticket might still succeed in winning these key states. However, Kornacki suggests that for Walz to make a significant impact, he must bridge the growing divide and reconnect with the demographic groups that have drifted towards the GOP. This challenge underscores the broader issues facing the Democratic Party as it navigates an increasingly polarized political landscape.
