Republicans Hold the Lead
There hasn’t exactly been a polling earthquake, but the Republican lead in the generic House race has shrunk somewhat.
In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Republicans had a two-point advantage over Democrats in mid-May and still hold that advantage now.
Dobbs is a genuinely momentous case; the effects of this will be felt for years to come and cannot be fully recognized. It fails, however, as a rapid fix for the political problems facing the Democrat Party.
There are several things happening. First, the ruling itself received less attention than it deserved when the draft opinion from May was leaked.
When Justice Alito’s opinion was announced, it wasn’t nearly old news, but everyone had time to process the idea it was certainly coming.
This reduced the shock factor and made the decision top news for days, instead of weeks.
As a doctor, I can assure you that @RepSwalwell is absolutely correct.
— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) July 14, 2022
The majority of individuals don’t have strong opinions on abortion either way, which is another factor. Although not drastically, more people now report it is a top-of-mind issue; the effect may wear off with time.
Inflation is the primary concern for a large majority of voters, as of the most recent Harvard/Harris poll, with 62 percent stating it is their top or second concern.
Along with fuel prices, crime, and immigration, 20 percent of people indicate they are either very concerned or somewhat concerned about abortion rights.
Only 5% of Independents, 9% of Democrats, and 0% of Republicans identified abortion as their top worry, according to a Monmouth poll. A New York Times/Sienna poll conducted in the meanwhile revealed the same results.
An issue that only affects such a small percentage of voters simply cannot be used to swing a national election.
Democrats Get it Wrong
Without a doubt, repealing Roe polls poorly.
However, there is also a misconception in the public that overturning the ruling will result in a blanket ban on abortion, which is untrue.
Despite all the discussion of Dobbs’ radicalism, it doesn’t enforce a set national law. Instead, it enables states to enact various laws in accordance with the will of their electorates, which reflect the country’s varied political and moral topography.
The system becomes very flexible as a result.
Today I signed an Executive Order to protect the reproductive rights of women in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's extreme decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
It formalizes the actions I announced right after the decision and will add new measures to protect women's health. pic.twitter.com/cujWTnxKvw
— President Biden (@POTUS) July 8, 2022
Of course, there will be those in every state who differ with the prevalent opinion on this matter; provisions in a particular state may cause uproar on a national scale.
However, neither Texas nor California needs to be concerned about any organization forcing its standards on them.