George Santos — the disgraced former congressman already known for fraud — is now under federal investigation for allegedly betting against his own attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address, and the prediction market that paid him has cut him loose.

Story Snapshot

• Santos publicly announced he would attend Trump’s February 24 State of the Union address, then placed bets on prediction platform Kalshi tied to that same event.
• Santos later missed the speech, blaming a delayed flight — a claim not yet backed by any public documentary evidence.
• Kalshi detected the suspicious trades and referred them to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has opened a probe into possible insider trading.
• Polymarket, which had a paid partnership with Santos, announced it is terminating that contract following the revelations.

Santos Bet on His Own Absence From Trump’s Speech

According to reporting by the Associated Press, Santos publicly announced his intention to attend President Trump’s State of the Union address on February 24, then placed bets on Kalshi — a rival prediction market — after making that public statement. He subsequently missed the event, attributing his absence to a delayed flight. The sequence of events — public commitment, trades placed, then a no-show — forms the core of the insider trading theory now under federal scrutiny.

The allegation, if proven, would represent a brazen scheme: Santos allegedly used his own private knowledge that he would not attend the event to profit from a prediction market contract tied to that very outcome. No trade records, account statements, or profit figures have been made public. The probe is still in early stages, and Santos has not been formally charged. Key facts remain attributed to unnamed sources familiar with the investigation rather than filed court documents.

Federal Regulators Step In After Kalshi Flags the Trades

Kalshi’s internal compliance team detected the suspicious trading activity and referred the matter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that oversees derivatives and event-contract markets. The CFTC has since opened a formal probe into Santos for possible insider trading. The fact that the referral came from Kalshi’s own surveillance operation — rather than a tip or media report — suggests the platform’s monitoring systems identified a pattern serious enough to escalate to federal regulators.

It is worth noting that prediction-market regulation remains a relatively underdeveloped area of financial law. The CFTC is still defining the boundaries of what constitutes insider trading in event-contract markets, where the line between informed speculation and misuse of personal non-public information is not yet clearly drawn. That legal ambiguity does not make the conduct alleged here acceptable — it makes it worse, because Santos allegedly exploited a regulatory gray zone for personal gain.

Polymarket Drops Santos as Paid Partner

Polymarket, which had separately hired Santos as a paid spokesperson or partner, announced it is terminating that contract. A Polymarket spokesperson confirmed the company was “in the process of terminating the contract as a result of this week’s revelations.” It is important to understand that a platform cutting business ties is not a legal finding of guilt — companies make these calls to protect their brand and regulatory standing. But the speed of the termination signals that Polymarket viewed the allegations as credible enough to act on immediately.

Polymarket cuts ties with George Santos as federal regulators investigate whether he bet against his own State of the Union attendancehttps://t.co/F0CF7L3TBG pic.twitter.com/j5I6YHMfDV

— Shopifreaks E-commerce Newsletter (@shopifreaks) June 4, 2026

Santos’s pattern of conduct deserves scrutiny beyond this single episode. He was expelled from Congress in December 2023 following a House Ethics Committee report detailing fraud, campaign finance violations, and outright lying to voters. He later received a presidential pardon from President Trump in January 2025, wiping his federal criminal slate clean. Now he resurfaces — this time allegedly exploiting emerging financial technology to game a prediction market. Conservative voters who believe in accountability and honest dealing should demand that this investigation proceed without political interference and that the facts be made fully public.

Sources:

[1] Web – Polymarket cuts ties with George Santos as regulators probe trades on …

[2] Web – Polymarket cuts ties with George Santos as regulators probe trades …

[3] Web – Will George Santos remain in Congress through March 31?

[4] Web – Polymarket cuts ties with George Santos as regulators probe trades …